tkonvicka

Tropical Storm Fay accomplished something today that is nothing short of remarkable: the storm actually intensified as it tracked across south Florida! As of this writing, the well-defined center of Fay is moving slowly NNE across Okeechobee County about 45 miles SSW of Melbourne. NHC stated forward speed as 7-8 mph but I’ve clocked only 5 mph since 3PM. Maximum sustained winds are at 65 mph, the highest at any time in Fay’s life cycle. This seemingly unprecedented feat has meteorologists scratching their heads. Some have suggested that as Fay moved onshore, the increased friction between the storm and the underlying surface led to intensification. It has also been proposed that lots of standing water from previous rainfall has helped Fay. I remain unconvinced on both accounts. I’m open to suggestions! (and so is the entire meteorological community!)

Forecast models are calling for Fay to emerge off the Florida coast into the Atlantic Ocean near the warm Gulf Stream current. This will intensify Fay to hurricane strength. Meanwhile, a passing short wave will leave Fay waiting for the much advertised high pressure ridge to build and shove it west or west-northwest. Fay will then be able to landfall again, probably as a hurricane, over north Florida or SE Georgia. I expect Fay will only have a limited westward journey and she will not make it to Louisiana. However, based on the unusual behavior Fay has shown so far, I ask you to recall my #1 rule of tropical forecasting: Don’t trust any tropical cyclone.

Best,
Tom Konvicka