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Splintered Vote Helps Wiliam Jefferson Survive
10/12/08 - 10:15 PM
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NEW ORLEANS (AP) - Enough black voters rallied around embattled U.S. Rep. William Jefferson in the Oct. 4 Democratic primary to keep him alive politically in Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District, but don’t expect the five black candidates who lost to close ranks behind him going into his Nov. 4 runoff with the only
white candidate.

Nor does the smart money say they will gang up against him in favor of Helena Moreno, the political newcomer and former television reporter who finished second in the primary.

“I think most will remain out of it,” said Ed Chervenak, an assistant professor of political science at the University of New Orleans.

Given Jefferson’s legal troubles - a federal indictment and the storied discovery of $90,000 in alleged bribe money in his freezer - why not endorse Moreno?

“Unconventional wisdom suggests that the African-American candidate who did not make this second primary would probably look not to endorse against the sitting black Congress person, especially in an election where you’re going to have an African-American running for president,” said Bill Rouselle, a
public relations and political consultant and familiar figure in New Orleans since his days as one of the city’s first black television reporters in the 1960s.

Rouselle, Chervenak and others expect that Barack Obama’s presence on the ballot will mean higher black turnout in the district, based in New Orleans and parts of Jefferson Parish. With votes usually breaking along racial lines, Jefferson should win.

So, why not get on his bandwagon?

“I doubt seriously if they would - if looking at their own personal interest - want to endorse, with the potential of Bill Jefferson being convicted at some point and thereby meaning that we’d have a new election,” Rouselle said.

Instead, at least some of those opponents will be positioning themselves as his likely replacement.

It’s been more than three years of bad news for Jefferson: the raid on his offices and homes, the news about the corruption investigation, the embarrassment of the “cold cash” and the federal indictment accusing him of soliciting bribes and misusing his congressional office for business dealings in Africa.

The effect on his popularity is evident. After drawing only one opponent in 2004, he had a dozen in 2006 and half a dozen this year. His victory party on Oct. 4 drew roughly three dozen family members and supporters, a modest showing for a nine-term congressman.

But it is likely he’ll endure through the runoff and in a Dec. 6 general election against a little known Republican and other minor candidates.

Demographics will play a big part in his survival, but race won’t be the sole reason, Rouselle says. Jefferson’s experience and influence - even diluted by scandal - will trump Moreno’s clean record, Rouselle predicts.

“This was a good congressman for the district, let’s be clear about that. The legal problems that have to do with his own personal ... problems, I don’t know, what the deal is with that. But Jeff represented the district well, brought the bacon home and stood up for those issues that the people in this district felt
were important.”

Another observation from Rouselle: There was a time when Jefferson might not have survived. Black support, marshaled by one or a few black political power brokers, would have likely solidified around one or two other black candidates.

“That has been the way folks in the past operated but I think you’ve got a whole new generation of young, very qualified people” competing for dominance, Rouselle said. “They ended up knocking each other out,” he said.

Is this lack of a unifying figure good or bad?

“It’s growing pains. If you stay around this game long enough, you get enough experience to know what to expect and how to deal with this stuff. We’ve got a lot of young new political people.

“I’m happy to see them. It’s time for the next generation to take over,” said Rouselle, 62. “That’s coming from an old man.”

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