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Sarah Black Teams Up With The Hurricane Hunters
06/02/09 - 07:31 PM
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  MONDAY NIGHT WE BROUGHT YOU A STORY REGARDING THE HURRICANE HUNTERS AND THE START OF THE 2009 HURRICANE SEASON.
  THIS TIME, SARAH BLACK TAKES A LOOK AT THE HURRICANE HUNTER’S ROLE IN FORECASTS AND HOW THOSE FORECASTS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE YEARS.
  IT WAS JUST 1960 WHEN WEATHER AND HURRICANE FORECASTING TOOK A HUGE LEAP THANKS TO THE LAUNCH OF THE FIRST WEATHER SATELLITE.
  AND SINCE THAT TIME WE HAVE COME A LONG WAY.
    AS COMPUTING POWER INCREASES SO IS OUR ABILITY TO FORECAST HURRICANES.
  “WE’VE HAD ADVANCEMENTS IN TECHNOLOGY ACROSS THE BOARD.  WE’VE HAD ADVANCEMENTS IN HOW WE CAN TELL WHERE HURRICANES ARE GOING, THEIR STRENGTH AND INTENSITY AND THEIR POSSIBLE EFFECT FROM WINDS”
  THE INFORMATION THAT GETS FED INTO HURRICANE FORECASTING COMPUTER MODELS COMES FROM VARIOUS SOURCES INCLUDING AIRPLANES, BOUYS IN THE GULF AND MOST IMPORTANTLY THE HURRICANE HUNTER DROPSCONDS.
  “THEY’RE ESSENTIAL TO HURRICANE FORECASTING.  WE HAVE SATELLITES THAT CAN ESTIMATE THE STRENGTH AND VARIOUS FACTORS IN HURRICANES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, BUT THESE FORECASTS ARE ONLY ESTIMATES.  THE HURRICANE HUNTERS GO OUT AND TAKE ACTUAL MEASURMENTS DIRECTLY AND THAT’S ESSENTIAL TO THE DATA WE RECEIVE TO BE ABOUT TO FORECAST THE INTENSITY AND DIRECTION FO WHERE HURRICANES ARE LIKELY TO GO.”
  BUT A CORRECT FORECAST HAS MORE IMPLICATION THAT JUST ON THE ACTUAL STORM ITSELF.
  ” IT COSTS ABOUT A MILLION DOLLARS TO EVACUATE ONE MILE OF COASTLINE.  WHAT THE HURRICANE HUNTERS AND OTHER FORECASTERS AIM TO DO IS REDUCE THE CONE OF UNCERTAINITY IN ORDER TO SAVE TIME, TROUBLE AND ALSO LIVES.”
  SINCE THE 1970S, ADVANCEMENTS IN COMPUTER MODELING HAS HELPED REDUCE ERRORS IN A 24 HOUR HURRICANE FORECAST ABOUT ONE PERCENT A YEAR.
  THAT MAY NOT SEEM LIKE MUCH, BUT IT SAVES MILLIONS OF DOLLARS AND UNCESSESARY EVACUATIONS.
  AND METEORLOOGISTS ARE WOKRING TO MAKE FUTURE FORECASTS MORE ACCURATE AND DETAILED.
  “WE’RE HOPING AT SOME POINT HURRICANE FORECASTS WILL GET TO THE POINT WHERE INSENSITY WILL BE ABLE TO BE FORECASTED AT LANDFALL EVEN SEVERAL DAYS OUT. 
  AND AS FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR THIS HURRICANE SEASON, WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.
  “WE STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN.  WE’RE IN WHAT’S CALLED A NUETRAL PHASE VERSUS AN EL NINO OR LA NINA.  DURING AN EL NINO, THERE’S TYPICALLY LESS HURRICANES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND DURING A LA NINA THERE’S TYPICALLY MORE SO BEING IN A NUETRAL PHASE THIS YEAR WE COULD GO EITHER WAY.”
  BUT KEEP IN MIND NO MATTER HOW BUSY OR NOT, IT ONLY TAKES ONE STORM TO HIT LOUISIANA AND THAT’S WHAT WE’LL BE WATCHING FOR ALL SEASON LONG
  MOST FORECASTS HAVE THIS SEASON BEING AVERAGE.
  AND JUST SO YOU KNOW THE AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON CONSISTS OF 10 NAMED STORMS, SIX HURRICANES AND TWO MAJOR STORMS AT CATEGORY THREE OR BETTER.